Continued economic expansion and curve flattening dominate US data flow

GDPNow for the second quarter is still at a breathtakingly high 4.5%. And it's beginning to look like we are going to come in well above 3% growth for the quarter. Consensus estimates are at 3.5%. Meanwhile the yield curve continues to flatten, with the differential between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury now below 33 basis points. The question is what to make of this. Some brief thoughts below.
Trade and immigration tensions side game
I resisted saying too much about trade and immigration over the past two weeks as those issues dominated headlines. Those issues pack a punch emotionally and politically. But economically, they aren't going to change things significantly in the US.

Globally, trade rose from 20% of GDP in 1995 to 30% in 2014 as the world became more interconnected. The US is...


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