This post was originally published on Patreon on 30 May 2018
Yesterday I said that I believed the Italian meltdown presented a buying opportunity because it was not existential. And today, calm has returned, actually sooner than I had expected. The Italian government bond auctions have gone well. The flight to safety has reversed much of its move. And stocks are rising again.
So I want to say more about the model I use to think about the economy and financial markets - and what we are seeing right now.
It's pretty simple, really. Basic econometrics do a very good job of telling us where an economy is headed over the medium-term because economic modeling is sophisticated enough to feed macro data in and spit out and range of likely outcomes. And if an economy is humming along at 2-3% ann...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.