Jobless claims are still pointing to US expansion

The latest report on weekly claims for unemployment insurance was released today showing 221,000 new claims. That takes the 4-week average to 222,250, which compares favourably to the year ago figure of 241,250. Some comments below

I have been tracking this data series as a macro indicator for directionality of growth for almost two decades now. And what I have found is that intial jobles claims do a very good job in warning of a slowdown.

What we are looking for is a meaningful uptick in the year-over-year change in initial jobless claims because this presages economic slowing and recession. Here's the chart below.

In the past, what I have concentrated on is the level of the change as a predictor of recession. For example, when I started writing at Credit Writedowns in early ...


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