A quick follow up here on Italy just for the more financially-minded of you. I don't see anything existential happening in the near-term because of Italy. We are seeing a flight to safety and that supports the US dollar and safe assets like US government bonds or German Bunds. But Italy is not going to have much further contagion given where we are in the business cycle.
If you look at the rest of the periphery in Europe, Spain's gross domestic product rose by 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018. Portugal's grew 2.1%. Ireland's last numbers I have are for Q4 2017 and that number is 8.4%, though the accounting is problematic. Even the Greek economy grew 1.9% in 2017.
That's a very different position than we were in in 2009, when (Dubai World and later) Greece started the first ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.