A lot of the recent incoming data has been soft. And while this may just be a blip, the breadth of weak numbers seems to be increasing. We could be in the midst of a global growth slowdown just as G-10 monetary policy has turned more hawkish. Some brief comments below
Deeply negative European data suprise numbers are mean revertingNow last week, I mentioned the possibility of an enduring slowdown with specific reference to Europe.
the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) for the Eurozone, fell to -79.2 at the end of last week. That’s abysmal. It’s the lowest reading since at least April 2013.
The caveat was that such deeply negative figures are mean-reverting. And from a market perspective, the CESI below -70 meant positive equity returns in 14 of 15 occasions over the past decade and a ha...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.