At last check, the most-watched spread in the world – that between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries – had flattened to 54 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point. Yes, Virginia, tariffs do lead to economic slowdowns.
And yet, the Fed seems intent to keep hiking. That’s what happens when wage inflation appears to be building, which is exactly what was communicated in the latest jobs report that showed workers are finding jobs at the fastest pace in nine years. The easier it is to get a job, the more employers are willing to pay up for workers. I’ll chime in on the inflation debate next week ahead of Powell’s first FOMC meeting.
Until that time, divining the future by peering into your economic crystal ball will remain a hugely frustrating endeavor.
-Danielle DiMartino Bo...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.