Right now, economic data surprises are diminishing. And so the synchronized global growth spurt may be decelerating. Nevertheless, many economists are talking about US growth through 2019 and a 3% unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is one of them. The fly in the ointment is the Fed and its accelerated rate hike timetable.
The bullish US economic scenario
Now Goldman isn't the only one talking up the US unemployment rate falling to 3%. So are JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Moody's Analytics. The danger is overheating, as Moody's Mark Zandi signalled when the latest jobs report came out. He says that the US economy could grow 2.9% this year. But potential growth in his view is only 1.75%.
Nevertheless, continued US growth could mean great things for the labo...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.