How likely is an upward revision to Q4 GDP growth?

A big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.

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I was just looking at the New York Fed’s Nowcast for Q4 and noticed the numbers climbing as the quarter progressed. Yet when the final number came out, there was a big miss to the downside.

Q4 2017

Source: NY Fed

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Given the numbers were climbing and we missed to the downside, could we expect a data revision upward when the next estimate is released at the end of February? With more people talking about the Fed’s reaction function – and some now openly talking about a 4th rate increase in 2018 —I think a big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.

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Right now, the Atlanta Fed is tracking Q1 at 4.0%, whereas the NY Fed has 3.2% growth.

Q1 2018 NYFed Nowcast

Source: NY Fed

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