A good piece over at the Globe & Mail has economist Gary Shilling sharing some of his best and worst calls through the years. He’s a macro analyst, not a stock picker. And it was his macro view that helped him predict the end of inflation in the early 1980s and the collapse of the US housing bubble in the 2000s. I’ve had the chance to meet Gary and he’s as good a macro market economist as you’re going to see.
Whats his big call now?
Long-dated US government bonds
Unlike Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and And Janus Henderson’s Bill Gross, Shilling doesn’t think bond yields have put in a secular low. Bond Guru Jeff Gundlach is also bond bearish. He says the 30-year bond will eventually hit 2% and the 10-year bond will get down to 1%. His view: “basically, with the Fed and the other...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.