We are in the most dangerous period in the business cycle

The European Commission said Wednesday that its Business Climate Indicator rose in November to hit its strongest since June 2007. The outlook for both production and export orders improved, indicating the economy is benefiting from the upswing in global demand.

-Bloomberg News
Why would I be writing about ‘danger’ when we are experiencing the first synchronized global economic upturn in over 8 years?

It’s the business cycle.

The last time I was this bullish on the global economy, it was 2009. And I was forced to defend my optimism because we were coming out of a deep, deep recession. And March 2009 was a great time to buy shares. People like Jeremy Grantham were calling this moment in real time too. But that was at the beginning of the business cycle, when shares were deeply over...


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