Why I am now officially on recession watch
The recent data coming out of the US has been almost unrelentingly negative outside of the recent jobs reports. The Atlanta Fed GDP now report was already down to 0.7% for Q4 when poor output and retail sales data came out. I expect the GDPNow forecast to fall even lower. And given the signal that the change in non-farm payrolls is sending and the difficult comps for weekly jobless claims, I believe we are now at stall speed in the US economy, putting me on recession watch. I have a number of data points to review here. So let’s get to it straight away.