Grexit is much closer than we think

The Greek government has now been boxed in by the “no” referendum vote and is unable to make the kinds of concessions a “yes” vote would have allowed. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup’s thinking about the manageability of Grexit is coalescing around letting Greece go unless it makes major concessions. With only a few days left to come to an agreement before bank nationalization and IOUs are necessary, a deal looks less likely to me. Grexit has become the default scenario.

The Greek government has now been boxed in by the “no” referendum vote and is unable to make the kinds of concessions a “yes” vote would have allowed. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup’s thinking about the manageability of Grexit is coalescing around letting Greece go unless it makes major concessions. With only a few days left to come to an agreement before bank nationalization and IOUs are necessary, a deal looks less likely to me. Grexit has become the default scenario.
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