US growth to accelerate while Chinese deceleration closes on political limit

Weak Q1 growth in the US is an aberration
Chinese rebalancing may hit political limits soon around 7.2% growth

United States. I still believe that this cycle’s peak growth period is now behind us and that growth will slow from here. Nonetheless, I also believe the 0.1% growth number we got from the most recent quarter is an aberration, marred by severe winter weather. Right now, the growth trend is around 2% with the largest variables from that trend being inventory builds, household debt accumulation, and capital spending.
One reason to be relatively optimistic about US growth is that the US jobs market is healing. We are seeing consistently large increases in employment and near cyclical lows in jobless claims. As long as the claims data remain below last year’s level, we should e...

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