I have been saying for some time now that I believe peak growth in this US business cycle was Q3 2013. Nevertheless, I want to explore the possibility that growth will accelerate from here, something that could keep stock prices and other risk asset prices elevated. A few quick thoughts below
First, today’s jobless claims number at 304,000 supports the concept that the US jobs market has begun to pick up. What we should be looking for here are material downward shifts in the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted average initial claims. I tend to focus on the unadjusted data now to avoid seasonality problems. And what we see now is an unadjusted 4-week average of 295,000 claims. This is lower than last year’s average of 318,000/ The difference is only 23,000 but it is large enough to say that...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.