Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 2

Yesterday I looked at the Ukraine situation from a decision-tree framing. And my conclusion was that Western influence in Ukraine’s internal politics to aid regime change was a key factor in making the situation in Ukraine and its consequences more unpredictable. I believe markets are fairly complacent given the potential fallout, which could include military confrontation. Today, I want to use a different framing to look at Russian - US animosity over Ukraine. I am going to use the Franco-Prussian War as an analogy to give a sense of likely outcomes.
In the mid-1800s, Prussian leader Otto von Bismarck was embarking on a long-held German desire to unify the country. The smaller southern German states that were not a part of Prussia were in a precarious state because they were encircled by...


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