Yesterday I looked at the Ukraine situation from a decision-tree framing. And my conclusion was that Western influence in Ukraine’s internal politics to aid regime change was a key factor in making the situation in Ukraine and its consequences more unpredictable. I believe markets are fairly complacent given the potential fallout, which could include military confrontation. Today, I want to use a different framing to look at Russian - US animosity over Ukraine. I am going to use the Franco-Prussian War as an analogy to give a sense of likely outcomes.
In the mid-1800s, Prussian leader Otto von Bismarck was embarking on a long-held German desire to unify the country. The smaller southern German states that were not a part of Prussia were in a precarious state because they were encircled by...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.