Some thoughts on Ukraine, part 1

It is about time I did a long-form political economy piece because a lot of what is occurring in emerging markets is of that ilk. The political economy dominates the economics of the issues in a way that makes discussing markets and economics very much related to politics. Here I want to concentrate on Ukraine because I believe it has become an important point of conflict for the future geopolitical landscape.
The frame I want to use here is the decision tree model. I may have mentioned this in the past, but it bears repeating. When I look at the political economy, a key assumption I make is that most incumbent politicians are risk-averse. And by that I mean that they have gained power and wish to maintain political incumbency by controlling outcomes to prevent outlier scenarios from taki...


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