Grokking upside scenarios in Crimea

As Ukraine prepares to evacuate its military from Crimea, I believe we should look at upside scenarios in Ukraine. Most of my commentary to date has been focused on risk assessment. But the pullout of Ukraine from Crimea is the first major sign of de-escalation I have seen in a while, which warrants a look at future positive outcomes. 
Here’s what I have been saying about the global backdrop:

After the Soviet Union broke up, Russia’s global geo-strategic position declined
The United States used this decline to increase its geo-strategic position to where many spoke of American global hegemony
Specifically, the United States, allied with the EU via NATO, advanced its sphere of influence deep into eastern Europe
Beginning around the turn of the century, post-Soviet American power peak...


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