My contention has been that the first two arrows of Abenomics gave the Japanese economy a short window to bring the Japanese labour market back to full employment, re-ignite wage gains, and institute structural reforms. In my view, Abe has not used this window effectively and the stock market and economic gains of the beginning of 2013 are going to recede. Last month I predicted Abenomics would ‘fail’ as Japanese GDP growth slips below 0.5%. We are well on that path.
If one looks at the Japanese economy through the sectoral balances lens, it was clear that Abenomics would be a boon to GDP and corporate profits.
The shift toward greater government deficits was more important than the threats about the inflation target because that’s what increased GDP and moved currency exchange rates....
As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.
Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.