Since October I have been saying that the US growth was probably going to decline for the remainder of this business cycle. In contrast, I have believed Europe would recover ever since data last June confirmed a broad based phase shift across the entire eurozone from worsening data to better data. The most recent data confirm this pattern becoming well entrenched. Some thoughts below
Yesterday, I wrote that US data are telling us that the 4% growth ideal from Q3 2013 is not going to be sustained. This chart is the key:
With consumption in the US at over 70% of GDP, wage pressure of this magnitude has to be felt in weakening consumer demand. To date, an incipient releveraging concentrated in auto and student loans has buoyed consumer spending. And the rise in house prices has underpi...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.