Back in the US, what are the data telling us?

Today’s ADP employment report came out with a figure of 139,000 jobs added to the US economy in February. This number is low and comes with downward revisions to past numbers. The ADP data are the last big numbers we will see except weekly initial claims before the jobs report come out. I think the numbers point to a tepid pace of underlying growth in the 2% range, not yet susceptible to recession due to exogenous shocks, but weaker than generally perceived.
ADP job gains for January were revised down to 127,000 from 175,000 and for December, the revision was down to 191,000 from 227,000. That is not a positive sign on the jobs front. My general view here is that recessions are led by negative income and job shocks. What happens is that we get to a point in the business cycle where the dr...


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