I have been sitting on my ten surprises for this year because not enough ideas had crystallized… until now. I think I will be ready to write the piece next week. Let me go through my thinking somewhat stream of consciously here. As a reminder, what I am trying to do is replicate what Byron Wien has done in making ten predictions that have a 50% likelihood of panning out, but which the market assigns something like 1/3 odds. These aren’t outliers like Saxo Bank’s list. Rather they are known risks that are being underplayed.
One risk for example that I believe could be interesting is the bond bull case. The case is predicated on a stronger economy that is sustained during QE withdrawal. The thinking is the US bull case I laid out yesterday in the post on inventory builds. There are a lot of...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.