2014 is a transition year for the United States because 2013 was the breakout year for growth. In the third and fourth quarters of 2013, US real GDP statistics showed annualized growth of 4.1 and 3.2% respectively. Official statistics also say that unemployment is at 6.6%, near the point where the Fed is to switch to a tightening bias. On the back of this growth, the Federal Reserve has begun tapering its large scale asset purchases. But underneath these numbers are points of weakness.
And the weaknesses are what make 2014 a transition year. It is not clear that growth is powering ahead. Just the opposite, I believe Q3 marked the peak in growth and that growth in the US will decline from here. For me, the two biggest points of weakness have been inventories and wage grow...
As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.
Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.