I am concerned about what is happening in the emerging markets but not alarmed. Fed tapering was a proximate trigger but not a cause. All indications are that the crisis is hitting only the most exposed and vulnerable markets and that this doesn't have to boomerang onto other markets. The worry has to be that contagion causes the locus of stress to spread to economic agents that should be less vulnerable, causing the crisis to metastisize and spiral out of control. Policy co-ordination in foreign exchange will be key if this occurs.
Let’s start with Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. He is already alarmed. His most recent piece is titled "Tapering is tightening, which inevitably ends in recession, bailout and tears":
Our warnings throughout last year that an unrave...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.