In 2012, I started off the newsletter with a list of ten surprises for 2012 and I repeated the exercise last year. For me, it is a good exercise to go through to hone my thinking about the economic and investing landscape. And it has been tough to come up with a list over the last two months because I have felt we are at a crossroads in this business cycle. Everyone was bullish as the year began, including me. But that left me uneasy. In the two months since, events have shown me why I was uneasy and now I will begin with the first half of my list.
The surprise list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for the last thirty years. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happenin...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.