Economic and market themes: 2014-02-21

Themes for today

Real economy deterioration in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey is evident.
Ukraine may be isolated without contagion.
US data continues to surprise to the downside.
Eurozone data may surprise to the upside.
Sweden may be a flashpoint for debt deflation dynamics in Europe.

Argentina. You may have noticed a pickup in the number of Argentine links recently. That is because I am keeping a close watch on the situation there due to the real economy deterioration I am seeing. While I don’t think Argentina is any more important than Ukraine in the grand scheme of emerging markets, the contagion possibility to Brazil is where we should watch Argentina. Official statistics show 5% growth in 2013 with unemployment declining to 6.4%. But the situation is probably not anything ...


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