2014 as an inflection point

Daily Commentary
When I last wrote you I was talking about 2013 as being akin to the mid-cycle tightening year of 1994. In this view, we are well into a business cycle but it is far from over because of cyclical agents could spur the cycle on. But what about the opposite view, that we are nearer to the end of the cycle? Some very brief thoughts here
The case for a robust outlook
What I was suggesting on Friday is that there is a possibility that a tightening a la 1994 precipitates a capital spending binge as it pulls forward demand in anticipation of further tightening. This works to accelerate the business cycle along with the associated hiring and interest income that also boosts wages. There is some evidence that we are on the cusp of an uptick in capital spending in 2014, something ...


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