Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared

Today’s commentary
I am going to my annual review a bit earlier this go around, hoping that I can do a new top ten surprises list earlier and more comprehensively next year. In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty percent or better chance of occurring. So if I was right, then I should get 5 out of ten predictions correct, while 3 to 4 out of ten should have been expected by investors. Last year, I graded myself at 7-3. Let’s see how I did this year.
2013 was a good year
Before I dive into the grading, I want to make a few general comments though.
First, the three market predictions I assigne...


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