The data for the holiday season suggest that that consumer spending in the United States remains robust. Though wage growth has yet to pick up, consumer spending remains robust enough to fuel further economic gains into 2014.
I am generally in a bullish frame of mind on the US economy. However, what I am looking for in the data are signs that the baton is being passed from a housing- and consumer-led recovery to a wage and jobs led one. And that means what we want to see are larger gains in job and wage growth going forward that allow consumers to spend without dissaving or releveraging. We are not there yet. But the level of consumer spending is enough to raise Q4 GDP growth expectations. Consensus is for 2.5%.
A lot of what I have seen in the media was about retai...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.