The scenario I laid out for Europe for 2014 in three posts on the global economy last week is one of muddling through. However, whereas in the US, there are upside risks, in Europe the risks are mostly to the downside, politically and economically. A few thoughts on the situation follow.
In my view, the risks are not just political, but also economic. Right now there are few positive catalysts that are easily recognizable except for the bottoming process I believe is ongoing. On the other hand there are a number of potential exogenous shocks that could throw the European economy off course.
Here is the macro argument:
Europe is constrained by the euro, which means that sovereign governments, as currency users, must act pro-cyclically and cut deficits during a deep ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.