Detailing some risks to the global economy

Today’s commentary
Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares. Below are some highlights on where some of the hidden risks lie. I am relatively bullish on the cyclical data. So that puts me in the consensus. However, some of the analysts I speak to regularly have a much more cautious view and I wanted to write this post to frame where their caution is coming from.

Most analysts looking at the global landscape see the traditional risks of slow job growth, particularly in Europe, as the main risk to the economy. So I will start here. Jobs matter because consumers contribute two-thirds of the consump...


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