On December tapering

This is a brief note because I need to alter my view on the Fed’s taper a smidgen. Yesterday, I said tapering is coming and I implied that it is likely to happen next week.

"The Fed Presidents then are lining up against QE3 and that means a taper is likely to happen sooner than later. The market is still betting on a March taper but the number of people saying December or January has increased.
I think Bullard’s call for a small taper as signal is the likely option and I believe we will see it next week and if not, then in January. "

I now think December may be too aggressive a move for the Fed. In re-reading Fed hawk Charles Plosser’s comments on QE in a post from the links yesterday, I have come to the conclusion that even hawks don’t believe we will taper in December.
Here’s t...

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