This is a brief note because I need to alter my view on the Fed’s taper a smidgen. Yesterday, I said tapering is coming and I implied that it is likely to happen next week.
"The Fed Presidents then are lining up against QE3 and that means a taper is likely to happen sooner than later. The market is still betting on a March taper but the number of people saying December or January has increased.
I think Bullard’s call for a small taper as signal is the likely option and I believe we will see it next week and if not, then in January. "
I now think December may be too aggressive a move for the Fed. In re-reading Fed hawk Charles Plosser’s comments on QE in a post from the links yesterday, I have come to the conclusion that even hawks don’t believe we will taper in December.
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.