Summary: Europe is in the sweet spot right now, with recovery looking like it has taken hold. Greece remains an outlier. The question is what will happen to Greece over the medium- to- long-term. I believe the answer is an exit from the euro zone. Below are some brief thoughts on why.
I have been relatively bullish on the eurozone for months now, the periphery included.Things looked fairly bleak early in the year as the Cyprus episode exploded onto the scene. But ever since the Cyprus depositor bail-in, most of the news out of Euroland has been positive, in no small part because of the move to backloading austerity, something German Chancellor Angela Merkel has tacitly supported.
When I first sensed in April that Europe was moving to the backloaded austerity paradigm...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.