Summary: Despite Europe’s continual moving of the goalposts to give countries more breathing room, the economic paradigm in Europe is still the same: austerity. This will dampen growth in Europe for the foreseeable future and increase government debt to GDP ratios, making debt deflation and crisis a background threat which will eventually result in sovereign restructurings regardless of recovery. I expect Greece to be on the table in 2014.
A lot of hay has been made about the recovery in Europe despite its fragile beginnings. Certainly, I called for the recovery early because the second derivative numbers in Europe were improving. Nevertheless, we need to be cautious here because growth in and of itself does not mean recovery. And the term recovery itself does not nece...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.