now outside the paywall
Summary: The U.S. Job Situation Summary was released this morning at 830EDT and the headline number of 169,000 jobs added to non-farm payrolls was just below consensus. Moreover, the unemployment rate dipped to 7.3%. Nonetheless, the reaction to the number was negative and for good reason. Below are my thoughts.
As I write this, the U.S. Treasury market is rallying and has staged a 12 basis point move down from a yield of about 3% to 2.88%. That is a big, big move and it gives you the sense that the market doesn't like these numbers. Here's why:
I am big on momentum in second derivatives - the change in the change - as a harbinger in major shifts. And there are two negative data points that stick out here on that score. First, we are now get...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.