Some initial thoughts on the US Jobs report, the Fed’s reaction function and tapering

Today's commentary
now outside the paywall
Summary: The U.S. Job Situation Summary was released this morning at 830EDT and the headline number of 169,000 jobs added to non-farm payrolls was just below consensus. Moreover, the unemployment rate dipped to 7.3%. Nonetheless, the reaction to the number was negative and for good reason. Below are my thoughts.
As I write this, the U.S. Treasury market is rallying and has staged a 12 basis point move down from a yield of about 3% to 2.88%. That is a big, big move and it gives you the sense that the market doesn't like these numbers. Here's why:

I am big on momentum in second derivatives - the change in the change - as a harbinger in major shifts. And there are two negative data points that stick out here on that score. First, we are now get...


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