Today's links are really, really thin. Apologies. I have been tied up doing other things. But I wanted to show you what I am looking at. Note the top two links showing 'peak expansion' in the U.S. This is something we need to watch. We need to see 2nd derivatives re-assert an upward trend in the next month or two or I will become convinced this business cycle is headed down permanently.
Twitter / TimDuy: I tend to look at exauto, exgas, which has slowed. Not disastrously, but not accelerating.
Here, Tim Duy notes that GROWTH in retail sales ex autos and gas is slowing i.e. second derivatives have turned down somewhat. As you know, I am big on 2nd derivatives in terms of their signal. While the European ones signal recovery, the US ones signal peak expansion.
Twitter / MacroScope: U.S. ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.