The biggest piece of news here is in China where the trade data have rattled investors, leading them to believe that a big slowdown in growth is coming. I have already posted on this. I do want to highlight Europe where the news flow seems a bit downbeat, especially in the wake of the Italian downgrade by S&P. My view here is more sanguine as I keep pointing to second derivative numbers as a sign of imminent recovery. Nonetheless, the news flow is bad enough that I remain wary of getting too bullish on this projected recovery story. At any point, the numbers could reverse. But policy makers are actively trying to boost the economy with German elections around the corner. The fall in the euro from dovish policy may be modestly beneficial to the periphery and growth.
In the US, I see a ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.