I don't put a lot of stock into economic sentiment surveys but the time series of this particular survey, the European sentiment indicator, caught my eye. It suggests a recovery in Europe is almost here.
Earlier today I had seen news that Sweden's economy turned down unexpectedly and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was on the case with a negative spin on the implications. And while I am sympathetic to his arguments - especially given the house price inflation and household debt problems in Sweden - I have been leaning the other way for a couple of months now. I believe Europe is on the cusp of a (weak) recovery in the periphery and this survey certainly goes in that direction. What I thought interesting was that in the past the survey has moved discretely in one direction for longer periods wit...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.