On predicting the US and European cyclical economic outlook

As I mentioned in an earlier post on Europe, a slew of manufacturing data was released today. When I wrote the first post, Europe and Asia had been released but the US had not. SInce then, the US numbers came out showing a shock contraction. Here are some thoughts on the numbers overall. I have three threads to discuss: data analysis, second derivatives, and secular patterns.
Read the first post to see the PMI and links to data for Europe and Asia. My general tone there was upbeat. But I do have some caveats.
Here is what has been posted by Markit on twitter on the North American and global data since then:

Global manufacturing growth and oil prices charted since 2005 #PMI http://twitpic.com/cv3dsn 
Research note on Global manufacturing #PMI data added to our commentary site: http://...


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