Here is a brief economic commentary on US student loans. I have been fairly sanguine about some of the market turbulence in 2013. From the fiscal cliff to the sequester to the Japan rate rise to the Fed tapering, I haven't seen a trigger for wholesale risk repricing. I want to flag student loans though because I think this could be a problem.
Back at the end of last year when I felt a full-scale fiscal cliff scenario would mean recession, I was still sanguine enough to note that you do need to get recession and some serious market black swans to get the kind of Armageddon scenario that people like Ray Dalio were talking about as an outlier. I agreed with Dalio that a 2008 repeat was unlikely but that what would make it likely was a large market discontinuity coupled with economic weakness....
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.