Why I may be wrong on Portugal because of the Cyprus deposit grab

Portugal is going to market with a 10-year sovereign bond issue, its first since 2011. I think this is a pretty big deal. Think of it as a complete return to public market access for the Portuguese government, one of the critical pre-conditions for an OMT-style bailout. This is a Herculean achievement by the Portuguese that I did not believe the Portuguese could pull off just three months ago. Ironically, I would credit the deposit tax in Cyprus for this turn of fortune. I will explain why below.
The first thing to note is what I was saying in January and February. On the horrendous numbers coming out of Europe back then, I wrote the following:
"In terms of the periphery, Spain and Portugal are the countries to watch. Let’s look at Portugal first. As El Pais reported earlier today, Portu...


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