September Looking Good - Tim Duy's Fed Watch
"A lot of data will be coming in the door over the next week and a half, culminating in the all-important employment report on Friday, June 5. I think even a moderately positive run of data will further cement a September shift. And I think the Federal Reserve would place less weight on a weak employment report than a strong employment report. The recent pattern of general upward revisions argues for a asymmetrical response. Moreover, I sense they are wary of being trapped by one weak number - I don't think they would have expanded QE last September if they knew that job growth for August was 165k rather than the initially reported 96k. They don't want to make that mistake again.Bottom Line: I think the Federal Reserve is leaning toward a...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.