In his daily commentary today, Andy Lees of the Macro Strategy Partnership noted that, "the US macro surprise index is now -7.90, the European index is -69.20 and the G10 index at -32.8." What he is saying is that the data are weakening and the surprises are starting to pop up on the downside. Yet again - and for the fourth year in a row - we are headed into another global growth slowdown. And the US has just joined the party. Will this impact Fed policy? If the data stream continues to be negative, the answer is yes.
It should make sense, since almost everywhere you look, governments are reacting. Japan is throwing the kitchen sink at its deflation problem, going full tilt on both monetary and fiscal stimulus. South Korea is adding big stimulus. Even Europe is getting in the act despite ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.