Thoughts on the Dow high and a look back at the market bottom in 2009

A lot is being made of the new high that was recorded by the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday. However, in the context of still weak income growth and lacklustre economic growth, the new Dow highs are not as widely celebrated as the stock market highs of 1999 or 2000. I have some thoughts on this. But I also wanted to use this as an opportunity to look back at the cycle lows and what the predictions from that time 4 years ago might tell us about what to expect today.

First, what is interesting is that the Dow has hit a new high and the S&P500 is really close despite the fact that S&P500 earnings peaked in Q1 2012. Now, we only have numbers through Q3 2012 but it seems likely that the Q4 2012 will still be below the Q1 2012 peak. What that says is that something other than ...

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