Will the corporate sector expansion peak in spring once again?

By Sober Look

The Empire (NY State) Manufacturing survey published last week showed a strong recovery for February.  The result, which tends to be volatile, was significantly better than consensus.

Source: Econoday

It remains to be seen however if we are going to repeat an earlier pattern. The survey’s historical data shows conditions peaking in late winter to early spring and declining later in the year.

Source: NY Fed

This pattern is not confined to NY state, and is in fact also visible at the national level. Within the next few days we should see the result from Markit US PMI for February, giving us a better feel for the trend in US manufacturing. So far however, the cycle remains intact.

But nowhere else is the cyclical pattern more visible than in the ISI’s company survey (discussed here). In particular, the diffusion index is now once again pointing to expansion in the US corporate sector. But spring is fast approaching…

Source: ISI Group


Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

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