Last Tuesday I updated you with my latest thinking about the twin fiscal debates on the debt ceiling and the remaining fiscal cliff items. I said then that the debt ceiling fight would come first and take precedence but that default on US public debt would be a step too far - and so Republicans would capitulate, forcing them to put their efforts into the sequester cuts that were delayed at the beginning of the year. The biggest change since then is that default looks to be off the table, making cuts during the debt ceiling standoff more likely.
Now the debt ceiling is still scheduled to become too much for even emergency spending measures to overcome by between "mid-February and early March of this year". That means that we have about a month to reach an agreement on lifting the debt ceil...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.