Predicting major correction in 2013 as contrary indicators are mostly bearish

Last year, I was bullish on European shares and this proved the right call as they modestly outperformed. As this year begins, I am doing a lot of thinking about my much-delayed "Ten Surprises for 2011" post. And as I compile list items, it's clear I want to be bullish again, this time both on the economy and global markets. But there are a few things holding me back.
Politics is the only thing holding me back on the economic front, frankly. If you look at Ireland, Britain and the US, three of the four big housing bubble markets, house prices have levelled off and are showing modest gains in many respects. Only Spain lags here. And clearly, this has everything to do with politics. The post on the eurozone crisis yesterday showed how much the politics of austerity has affected growth traje...


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