German GDP contracted by an unexpectedly large 0.5% in Q4 2012, according to preliminary estimates of the German government. The contraction is largely due to receding export and capital investment volume and does not necessarily mean Germany is in recession unless Q1 is weak as well. I do have a few comments about the numbers, however. My comments have mostly to do with the German economic model, which I have commented on a few times in the past.
The way I positioned it in 2011 was by asking "What is the secret to Germany's economic success?" The gist of that post was that the fundamentals for the German economy were favourable. However, because the German economic model is highly geared toward external trade, the country was vulnerable to weak demand growth or recession elsewhere in Eur...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.