Daily: In all scenarios, GDP will be impacted by the fiscal cliff

According to recent estimates by Goldman Sachs, the US economy is already at stall speed, with GDP growth for Q4 expected to be an anemic 1%. Any further cuts to growth beyond this due to the fiscal cliff in 2013 would cause a recession.
But we also know two things based on the recently released ISM manufacturing numbers upon which Goldman's downgraded growth expectations for Q4 are based. First, as I outlined in a post for silver and gold members, the fiscal cliff has already negatively impacted new orders. The reason the ISM manufacturing survey was negative had much to do with poor numbers for new orders and employment, both of which were affected by caution associated with the fiscal cliff. Output was higher in November than October. Second, as Goldman pointed out, all of the inventor...


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