According to Stan Collender, the chance that the US goes over the fiscal cliff is now at least 75%. This rhymes with what I have been saying all along. I would put the number at 90%. The US will NOT get all of the line items to prevent the fiscal cliff approved. Some will definitely lapse and they will not be offset by any kind of tax cut or spending increase. Austerity is coming. Politically, it is miraculous that the US has resisted austerity for so long given the size of the deficit and the austerity that has already occurred in Europe. I am not making a statement in support of austerity, just addressing the political realities.
Here's what Collender writes:
With 17 days as the crow flies before it happens, it's time for me to do something I've been resisting for a week or so: forma...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.