There has been a bit of talk about jobless claims since the abnormally large fall in claims two weeks ago. Those numbers were skewed by reporting anomalies that were adjusted in the subsequent week. Looking beyond the week to week data, however, one sees a discernible trend down in jobless claims. And this is not consistent with recession.
When I started Credit Writedowns during the recession in 2008, I used to look at the jobless claims data a lot. Previously, I had noted that a rise or fall in the change in jobless claims was a meaningful number. Put simply, recessions occur when jobless claims go up a lot and recoveries occur when they go down a lot. I used to look at both continuing claims as well as initial jobless claims. But because this recovery has been so weak and so many peop...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.