Yearly decline in average jobless claims of nearly 30,000 still not pointing to recession

There has been a bit of talk about jobless claims since the abnormally large fall in claims two weeks ago. Those numbers were skewed by reporting anomalies that were adjusted in the subsequent week. Looking beyond the week to week data, however, one sees a discernible trend down in jobless claims. And this is not consistent with recession.

When I started Credit Writedowns during the recession in 2008, I used to look at the jobless claims data a lot. Previously, I had noted that a rise or fall in the change in jobless claims was a meaningful number. Put simply, recessions occur when jobless claims go up a lot and recoveries occur when they go down a lot. I used to look at both continuing claims as well as initial jobless claims. But because this recovery has been so weak and so many peop...


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